Signals
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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Models use heuristic assumptions and historical data that may not reflect future outcomes. Do not make investment decisions based solely on this content.
Signal Ledger →
The complete catalog of every signal mplot tracks, with live readings and methodology.
Portfolio Allocation by Signal
A deterministic rule applied to mplot's current readings
What allocation does the data imply right now? A transparent rule applied to multi-factor signals across 10 assets, with macro-driven cash reserve logic and an explicit trigger dashboard for re-allocation. The model holds 30% TLT, 25% HYG, 16% crypto split, 29% cash — and zero equities, despite SPY's 8% rally since March.
The Stagflation Signal
When the Fed can't cut: tariffs, recession risk, and the policy trap
Tariffs have added 70+ bps to core inflation while unemployment rises to 4.4% and recession probability hits 31%. The Fed is frozen — unable to cut into above-target inflation. Three custom visualizations map the stagflation quadrant, quantify remaining policy space, and decompose tariff-driven vs demand-driven inflation.
SPY 2027: A Regime-Conditional Monte Carlo
5,000 paths conditioned on liquidity regime, recession probability, CAPE valuation, and macro-conditional transitions
An enhanced Monte Carlo integrating four layers: liquidity regime conditioning, recession probability overlay, CAPE mean-reversion drift, and macro-conditional transition matrices. The base model projects +26% median return; the enhanced model tempers this to +8% with P(loss) rising from 17% to 39%.